It is impossible to assess reliably, with any precision, numbers of fatal cancers caused by radiation exposure due to Chernobyl accident. Further, radiation-induced cancers are at present indistinguishable from those due to other causes. An international expert group has made projections to provide a rough estimate of the possible health impacts of the accident and to help plan the future allocation of public health resources. These predictions were based on the experience of other populations exposed to radiation that have been studied for many decades, such as the survivors of the atomic bombing in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. However, the applicability of risk estimates derived from other populations with different genetic, life-style and environmental backgrounds, as well as having been exposed to much higher radiation dose rates, is unclear.
Moreover small differences in the assumptions about the risks from exposure to low level radiation doses can lead to large differences in the predictions of the increased cancer burden, and predictions should therefore be treated with great caution, especially when the additional doses above natural background radiation are small. The international expert group predicts that among the 600 000 persons receiving more the most ‘contaminated’ areas), the possible increase in cancer mortality due to this radiation exposure might be up to a few per cent. This might eventually represent up to four thousand fatal cancers in addition to the approximately 100 000 fatal cancers to be expected due to all other causes in this population. Among the 5 million persons residing in other ‘contaminated’ areas, the doses are much lower and any projected increases are more speculative, but are expected to make a difference of less than one per cent in cancer mortality.
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